The price cap will stay above £1,900 for a typical household until at least 2035, according to analysis by Cornwall Insight reported by GB News. That is £1,000 a year more than the average bill between 2010 and 2021. For a 3-bed semi using 12,000 kWh of gas and 2,900 kWh of electricity, the annual cost is roughly £2,100 today and will not fall below £1,900 for more than a decade. The GB News report quotes a government source calling the situation ‘not sustainable’.
As reported by GB News, the projections assume no major geopolitical shocks, yet the UK’s reliance on volatile gas markets means prices could spike again. The government’s own net-zero strategy assumes electricity will become cheaper than gas by 2030, but that shift relies on massive grid upgrades and more renewables, neither of which is guaranteed on schedule.
Who pays and how much
Households on standard variable tariffs are stuck with the cap. Those on fixed deals are paying slightly less, around £1,700, but those fixes are ending. Ofgem data shows 4.5 million households came off fixed deals in the last year and moved to the cap. The average increase for those households: £300 a year.
But the cap is not the full story. Standing charges, the daily fee you pay regardless of usage, have risen 40% since 2021, to about 60p a day for electricity and 30p for gas. That adds £330 a year before you turn on a single light. Ofgem says standing charges reflect network costs, but consumer groups argue they penalise low-usage households, including many pensioners.
The catch is that the government’s main response, the Energy Price Guarantee, which capped bills at £2,500 in 2022, has been withdrawn. The current cap is lower, but only because wholesale prices have fallen. The underlying cost structure has not changed.
What homeowners can do now
Improving your EPC rating is the most direct way to cut bills. A typical D-rated semi-detached house spends £300–£500 more per year on energy than the same house rated C. The Energy Saving Trust estimates that cavity wall insulation saves £300 a year, loft insulation £200, and a new gas boiler (A-rated) about £150. For a heat pump, the saving is roughly £200–£300 a year compared to an old gas boiler, but only if the house is well insulated.
Grants exist but are not universally known. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme offers £7,500 towards a heat pump, but only 20,000 vouchers were issued in the first year. The ECO+ scheme provides free insulation for low-income households, but eligibility is tight. For solar panels, the Smart Export Guarantee pays 5–15p per kWh for electricity fed back to the grid, enough to cut a typical bill by £100–£200 a year.
The policy gap
The government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy aims to install 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028. Current installations are below 50,000. The gap involves cost, installer capacity, consumer awareness, and mixed messages from ministers. The Prime Minister has said net zero should not ‘burden’ households, yet the same government cut home energy efficiency grants by 80% in 2015. The Climate Change Committee says the UK needs to insulate 1 million homes a year to meet 2035 targets. Current rate: about 300,000.
What this misses is that the cheapest unit of energy is the one you do not use. Every £1 spent on insulation saves £3–£5 in energy costs over a decade, according to the UK Green Building Council. The government’s own analysis shows that a national home upgrade programme would pay for itself within 15 years through reduced health spending and energy bills. But the Treasury has not committed the capital.
Households on standard variable tariffs should check their EPC rating on gov.uk. If it is D or below, contact your energy supplier about ECO+ eligibility before 31 March 2025. For heat pumps, apply for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme through Ofgem, the £7,500 grant is available until 2028, but installer waiting lists are growing. Solar panels cost £5,000–£8,000 for a typical 4kW system and pay back in 10–15 years. If you can afford the upfront cost, now is the time: VAT on solar panels is 0% until 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions
Unlikely before 2035, according to Cornwall Insight. The price cap is projected to stay above £1,900, more than double the average of £1,100 from 2010–2021. Structural costs, network charges, green levies, and gas dependency, are baked in.
For most homes, cavity wall or loft insulation offers the fastest payback, typically 2–4 years. If your home is already well insulated, a heat pump (with the £7,500 grant) can cut annual heating costs by £200–£300 versus an old gas boiler.
