The energy price cap will rise by roughly £80 to £100 per year for a typical household from July, Cornwall Insight forecasts, with a further increase expected in October. That pushes the average annual bill past £1,800 for the first time since January 2024. For a 3-bed semi using 12,000 kWh of gas and 2,900 kWh of electricity, the July rise alone adds about £7 a month, not catastrophic, but another squeeze on budgets already stretched by higher mortgage rates and food inflation.
Cornwall Insight, the consultancy that monitors wholesale energy markets, released the forecast on 17 June. As reported by Cornwall Insight, the July rise stems from higher wholesale gas prices and increased network costs. October’s increase could be worse if winter demand pushes prices up further. Ofgem will confirm the exact cap levels in August and November respectively, but the direction is clear: energy costs are not falling back to pre-crisis levels.
Who pays the price, and who doesn’t
Households on standard variable tariffs, about 80% of UK homes, will feel the July rise directly. Those on fixed deals locked in during the autumn 2023 dip may escape until their contract ends. But the October forecast matters more: if wholesale prices spike, the cap could climb above £2,000 for the first time since the 2023 peak. Cornwall Insight’s model assumes a mild winter, but a cold snap could add another £150 to the annual figure.
The catch is that the price cap protects only against extreme spikes, not gradual increases. Ofgem’s mechanism adjusts every three months, so July’s rise is already baked into suppliers’ costs. For homeowners, the only real defence is cutting usage, or improving efficiency.
What it costs a typical 3-bed semi
Take a semi-detached house in the Midlands with an EPC rating of D. It uses roughly 12,000 kWh of gas and 2,900 kWh of electricity per year. At the current cap (about £1,690 annually), the July rise adds around £84, that’s £7 a month. If October adds another £120, as some forecasts suggest, the annual bill hits £1,894. Over five years, that’s nearly £9,500 in energy costs, assuming no further rises.
But the same house with cavity wall insulation, loft insulation to 270mm, and double glazing could cut consumption by 20–30%. That drops the bill to £1,325–£1,515 per year, a saving of £380–£570 annually. The Great British Insulation Scheme closed on 31 March 2026. It funded insulation measures only and never covered windows or glazing.
EPC impact, and why it matters more now
EPC ratings affect more than selling a house. From 2025, landlords will need a C rating for new tenancies, and the government is consulting on extending that to all homes by 2030. For homeowners, a D-to-C upgrade can add £5,000–£10,000 to property value, according to estate agent data. More immediately, it cuts bills. Insulation is the cheapest route: top-up loft insulation costs £300–£500 and pays back in two to three years at current prices.
Solar panels, at £5,000–£8,000 installed, generate about 3,500 kWh per year on a south-facing roof, enough to cover most of a 3-bed semi’s electricity. With the Smart Export Guarantee paying 15p per kWh, payback is around 10 years. Heat pumps, at £7,000–£14,000 after the grant, are pricier but reduce gas bills by 50–60%. The Energy Saving Trust estimates a typical household saves £400–£700 per year switching from a gas boiler to an air-source heat pump.
What to do by when
Homeowners on standard variable tariffs should check their current usage and compare fixed deals, but only if the fix locks in a rate below the July cap. For most, the best option is to invest in efficiency before October. Book an insulation survey now: installers are busy in autumn. Apply for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme through Ofgem’s portal; the grant is first-come, first-served. For solar, get quotes in July to install before winter. The price cap may rise again, but your household’s demand doesn’t have to.
Frequently Asked Questions
Cornwall Insight forecasts a rise of roughly £80–£100 per year for a typical household, equivalent to about £7 per month. The exact figure depends on your usage and region, but Ofgem will confirm the cap in August.
Loft insulation and draught-proofing are the most cost-effective upgrades, costing £300–£600 and saving £200–£300 per year. The Great British Insulation Scheme closed on 31 March 2026. It funded insulation measures only and never covered windows or glazing.
