Martin Lewis warns energy bills will stay high through winter

Wholesale gas prices are up 40% since August. That single number explains why Martin Lewis, the Money Saving Expert founder, told his audience this week that the outlook for energy bills ‘ain’t looking good’ ahead of winter. For the 28 million households on standard variable tariffs, the message is blunt: the price cap rose by 10% on 1 October, and another increase in January 2025 is now all but certain.

As reported by the Daily Express, Lewis stressed that the root cause is geopolitical, gas supply fears linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reduced Norwegian maintenance, but the effect lands squarely on household direct debits. Ofgem’s price cap for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit now sits at £1,717 a year. Analysts at Cornwall Insight predict the January cap will rise to roughly £1,820.

What the January cap rise means for your bills

If the January increase lands at the projected £1,820, that’s an extra £103 a year on top of October’s £149 rise. Combined, a typical household will have seen a £252 annual increase in just six months. For homes that use more than the typical 12,000 kWh of gas and 2,900 kWh of electricity, larger detached houses or those with electric heating, the actual cash impact will be higher. The cap sets a maximum unit rate, not a total bill, so higher consumption still costs more.

The catch is that very few fixed tariffs currently undercut the cap. Money Saving Expert’s own comparison tool shows only a handful of deals at £1,600–£1,650, and those typically come with exit fees. But if you can find a fix below the January predicted cap, and you are confident you won’t move house in the next year, locking in now buys certainty. The price cap only protects against unit rate spikes; it does not cap your total bill.

Why energy efficiency beats any tariff strategy

Tariff shopping is a short-term game. The only durable defence against high unit rates is to burn fewer kWh. That means insulation, draught-proofing, and heating controls. The Energy Saving Trust estimates that topping up loft insulation from 120mm to 270mm saves a typical semi-detached house about £35 a year. Cavity wall insulation saves around £195 annually. Neither figure is huge on its own, but combined with a smart thermostat (saving 10–15% on heating) and LED lighting, the total reduction can be 20–30% of a household’s gas and electricity use.

The Great British Insulation Scheme, launched in 2023, offers free or heavily subsidised insulation to low-income households and those in lower EPC bands. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme provides £7,500 off an air-source heat pump, which can cut heating bills by 20–30% compared to an old gas boiler, especially if paired with a smart tariff like Octopus Cosy or EDF’s heat pump rate. Grants are not infinite, the heat pump scheme has a fixed budget and applications are processed on a first-come, first-served basis.

But here is the reality check: most UK homes still have an EPC rating of D or below. The average cost to bring a D-rated home up to C is roughly £10,000–£15,000, depending on the property type. That sum is beyond reach for many households without grant support. The government’s own Net Zero Strategy assumes 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028. Current annual installations are around 60,000. The gap is not a market failure; it is a policy gap.

What you can do now, before January

First, check if you are on a standard variable tariff. If so, use a comparison site to see if a fixed deal exists below £1,717. Second, apply for the Great British Insulation Scheme if your EPC is D or below and your household income qualifies. Third, book a free home energy audit through your local council’s energy advice service, many offer draught-proofing kits and radiator reflector panels for free. Fourth, if you have a smart meter, start tracking your gas and electricity use weekly. Small behavioural changes, turning the thermostat down by 1°C, washing clothes at 30°C, bleeding radiators, each save about £80–£100 a year.

The January price cap announcement is expected in late November, with the new rates taking effect on 1 January 2025. That gives households roughly eight weeks to act. Waiting until the cap rises to fix or insulate will only cost more. As Lewis put it, ‘ain’t looking good’ is not a prediction, it is a warning. The smart money is on action, not hope.