The price cap will rise by £63 in October, the third increase this year. That is the first concrete fact of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership for 11 million households on standard variable tariffs. The rest of his energy agenda is still being drawn up, but six charts published by the BBC offer the clearest picture yet of where it is heading.
As reported by BBC News, the charts track everything from net migration to NHS waiting lists. But for homeowners, three of those charts matter most: energy prices, housing starts, and renewable investment. Each tells a story that will land on your monthly direct debit.
Energy prices, the slow grind down
The BBC’s price chart shows wholesale gas costs falling from their 2022 peak of 600p per therm to around 80p today. Yet household bills have not fallen proportionately. The typical annual dual-fuel bill on the price cap is still £1,568, 50% higher than in early 2021. The gap is explained by network charges, standing charges, and supplier margin recovery. Ofgem figures show standing charges alone have risen 43% since 2021, to about £330 a year for a typical 3-bed semi. That is the part of the bill you cannot reduce by using less energy.
Housing starts, the retrofit bottleneck
The second chart shows housing starts at their lowest since 2013. That is bad news for the government’s target of 1.5 million new homes, but it also points to a deeper problem: the construction industry has no spare capacity for retrofits. The Energy Saving Trust estimates that 19 million homes need insulation upgrades to meet EPC C by 2035. With builders tied up on new sites, the pool of certified retrofit installers is tiny. Heat pump installations hit 60,000 in 2023, a record, but still a fraction of the 600,000 per year the Climate Change Committee says is needed by 2028.
Renewable investment, the planning logjam
The third chart shows renewable energy capacity growing, but at half the rate needed to meet 2030 targets. Onshore wind approvals fell to a record low under the previous government. Starmer has pledged to double onshore wind by 2030, but the planning system still takes 4–7 years for a typical solar farm. For homeowners, that means grid constraints remain the biggest barrier to connecting solar panels or heat pumps. National Grid ESO’s own data shows 200 GW of renewable projects stuck in the connection queue, with average wait times of 3.5 years.
What this means for your home upgrade plans
The catch is that policy direction is clearer than delivery. The government has confirmed it will raise the minimum EPC standard for rental properties to C by 2028, which could cost landlords £5,000–£15,000 per property. For owner-occupiers, the Boiler Upgrade Scheme has been extended to 2028, offering £7,500 off a heat pump. But installer shortages mean lead times of 8–12 weeks in most regions. The smartest move for homeowners is to act early: the grant money is finite, and installer prices will rise as demand outstrips supply.
Who qualifies, and who doesn’t
Households on standard variable tariffs can switch to a fixed deal now if they find one below the October cap. Those considering a heat pump should check eligibility through the Energy Saving Trust’s online tool. Landlords should budget for EPC C upgrades before the 2028 deadline, when enforcement fines of up to £30,000 apply. The government has not yet confirmed whether the EPC system will be reformed to include running costs, as proposed in its December 2023 consultation.
Households on standard variable tariffs can apply for the Warm Home Discount of £150 from October if they receive certain benefits. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme opens for new applications on 1 April each year, the current £7,500 grant is guaranteed until March 2027. Check your EPC rating at gov.uk and book a retrofit assessment if you are below C. The earlier you act, the more you save.
Frequently Asked Questions
Ofgem forecasts suggest the cap will fall by about £100 in January 2025, but only if wholesale prices stay stable. The October rise of £63 is driven by higher standing charges, not wholesale costs. Cornwall Insight's latest prediction shows the cap remaining above £1,500 through summer 2025.
Yes, if you can find an installer. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme pays £7,500 off a heat pump, and solar panel costs have fallen 20% in the past year. But grid connection waits can be 6–12 months for solar, and heat pump installers are booked 8–12 weeks ahead in most areas. Book a survey now for a spring 2025 install.
