The price cap will rise again in October, pushing the typical annual bill to £1,714, and it will stay at or above that level until the end of 2027. That is the central forecast from Cornwall Insight, as reported by The i Paper. For the average 3-bed semi using 12,000 kWh of gas and 2,900 kWh of electricity, that means roughly £1,200 more over three years than pre-crisis levels. The government has no plan to cut VAT on energy bills again. Ofgem’s price cap methodology is not changing. So what can a homeowner actually do?
Why bills won’t fall, and what that means for your budget
Wholesale gas prices have dropped from their 2022 peaks, but network charges, policy costs and supplier margins have filled the gap. Ofgem’s latest cap breakdown shows network costs alone add £340 to the typical bill, up 12% since 2021. The Energy Price Guarantee scheme ended in June 2023, meaning households now absorb the full market cost. Cornwall Insight’s modelling, cited by The i Paper, assumes no major geopolitical shock and still puts the cap above £1,700 through 2027. The catch: most households on standard variable tariffs will pay that rate. Fixed deals are returning, but they are typically only 5-8% below the cap, not enough to offset the structural high.
The one upgrade that pays back fastest
Loft and cavity wall insulation. A typical semi-detached house loses 25% of its heat through the roof and 35% through walls. Topping up loft insulation from 100mm to 270mm costs around £400-600 for a professional job and can save £150-200 a year, according to Energy Saving Trust figures. Cavity wall insulation runs £700-1,200 and saves £200-300 annually. Combined, that is £350-500 off your bill every year, a 20-25% reduction. Payback is under three years. No other retrofit, not a heat pump, not solar panels, delivers that speed for that upfront cost. The Great British Insulation Scheme, launched by the government in 2023, covers most or all of the cost for households on certain benefits or with an EPC rating of D or below. You apply through your energy supplier.
Who qualifies, and who doesn’t
The scheme targets low-income households and those in the least efficient homes (EPC bands D-G). If you are on Pension Credit, Universal Credit, or other means-tested benefits, you likely qualify for a fully funded installation. If not, you may still get a subsidy covering 50-75% of the cost, depending on your supplier and region. The catch: the scheme is capped at 300,000 installations per year, and some suppliers have already filled their allocation for 2024. Officials have not confirmed when the next tranche opens. For homeowners who do not qualify, paying out of pocket still makes financial sense, the payback period is shorter than any loan or credit card debt you might carry.
What this means for your EPC
Adding or upgrading loft and cavity wall insulation can lift your EPC rating from D to C, or from C to B. A C rating is the minimum for most green mortgage products and for selling to buyers who need a mortgage. From 2025, landlords face a minimum EPC C for new tenancies, though the government has delayed enforcement for existing lets. For owner-occupiers, a better EPC means lower bills and higher property value. Nationwide Building Society data shows homes rated A-C sell for 14% more on average than those rated D-G. That is a £28,000 uplift on a £200,000 house, far more than the cost of the insulation.
What to do now
Check your loft insulation depth this weekend. If it is below 270mm, order top-up from a local installer. Call your energy supplier and ask if you are eligible for the Great British Insulation Scheme. If you are on benefits, they must offer you a free survey. If not, get three quotes and compare. The work takes a day and pays back within three winters. Energy bills will stay high until 2027. Your insulation will not.
Frequently Asked Questions
Professional loft insulation top-up to 270mm typically costs £400-600 for a 3-bed semi. The Great British Insulation Scheme may cover the full cost if you are on certain benefits or have an EPC rating of D or below.
Cornwall Insight forecasts the cap will stay above £1,700 until at least 2027. Analysts say a fall below £1,500 would require a sustained drop in wholesale gas prices and a reduction in network charges, which Ofgem is reviewing but has not committed to.
