The Office for National Statistics expects CPI inflation to dip below 2% by June, the first time in three years. Yet for UK homeowners, the real number that matters is the one on their energy bill, which is heading in the opposite direction.
As reported by GB News, a ‘sharp energy bill increase’ is coming this summer, even as broader price pressures ease. The divergence is a cruel arithmetic: lower inflation at the supermarket means little when your direct debit rises by double digits.
What the price cap jump means for your bill
Ofgem’s price cap is expected to rise by about £100–£150 a year from July, taking a typical dual-fuel household on standard variable tariff to roughly £1,850. That’s down from the £2,500 peak of early 2023, but still 40% above pre-crisis levels. The increase comes from wholesale gas prices that have stayed stubbornly high, European storage is below average for this time of year, and higher network charges to fund grid upgrades.
For a 3-bed semi using 12,000 kWh of gas and 2,900 kWh of electricity, the extra cost works out at about £12 a month. That’s a new car tyre, a month of bus fare, or half a weekly shop. The catch is that many households switched to fixed deals last winter and will now roll onto the cap at the higher rate, a double hit.
Who feels it most, and how EPC ratings change the math
Homes rated EPC D or below, roughly 60% of UK housing stock, will see a bigger absolute rise because they use more energy to stay warm. The Energy Saving Trust estimates a typical D-rated semi spends £1,000 a year more on heating than a C-rated one. That gap widens when unit prices rise.
The Great British Insulation Scheme closed on 31 March 2026. It funded insulation measures only and never covered windows or glazing. The scheme offers free or subsidised cavity wall and loft insulation, which can cut heat loss by 20–30%. For the average home, that’s £200–£300 a year off the bill, more than the coming increase.
What homeowners should do before July
First, check your current tariff. If you’re on a fixed deal ending soon, you can switch to another fix now, some fixed rates are still below the forecast cap. Use a comparison site or your supplier’s app. Second, book an EPC assessment if you haven’t had one in the last 10 years; it costs £60–£120 and unlocks grant eligibility. Third, consider a heat pump. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme gives £7,500 off an air-source heat pump installation. Running costs are typically 20–40% lower than a gas boiler, and the grant covers most of the upfront difference.
But don’t wait. Installers have long lead times, and the grant budget is first-come, first-served. The same applies to solar panels: a 4 kW system costs £5,000–£6,000 and can cut electricity bills by 50–60%, but the Smart Export Guarantee pays you for surplus power at 5–15p per kWh. That’s a hedge against future price rises.
The inflation news is a mirage for homeowners. The real story is on your energy statement. Act on it now, not in July.
Frequently Asked Questions
Yes. Ofgem is expected to announce a rise of £100–£150 a year from July, taking a typical dual-fuel bill to around £1,850. The increase is driven by higher wholesale gas costs and network charges.
Yes. Some fixed tariffs are still below the forecast cap. Check comparison sites now. If you're on a standard variable tariff, switching to a fix could save you £100–£150 over the next year.
