Fixed energy deals return but pick carefully or pay more

Fixed energy tariffs have returned below the October price cap for the first time since the crisis began, and the gap is wide enough to matter. The best 12-month fix on the market undercuts the upcoming cap by roughly £80 a year for a typical dual-fuel household using 12,000 kWh of gas and 2,900 kWh of electricity. For a 3-bed semi in the Midlands, that’s about £6.70 a month off a bill that has already risen £63 since July.

As reported by This is Money, the cheapest fixes are now offered by Outfox the Market at £1,568 a year, followed by EDF at £1,596. That compares with the October price cap of £1,717, a saving of £149 at the top end. But the catch is timing: wholesale gas prices have fallen 40% since their 2022 peak, and analysts at Cornwall Insight expect further drops through winter. A fix taken today could look expensive by spring.

Who qualifies, and who doesn’t

Not every household can grab the headline rate. Fixed deals typically require a good credit score, a smart meter (or willingness to have one installed), and online account management. More importantly, suppliers are increasingly screening by EPC rating. Several deals on the market today, including EDF’s ‘Fix & Save’ tariff, are only available to homes rated C or above. Properties rated D or below, roughly 60% of the UK’s housing stock, may be offered a higher rate or excluded altogether.

This is where the eco-home upgrade case becomes urgent. A home with an EPC rating of E typically uses 40% more energy than a C-rated home for the same comfort level. The difference in annual gas consumption alone can be 6,000 kWh, enough to add £300 to a fixed tariff before the unit rate is even applied. Improving insulation, draught-proofing, or upgrading a boiler to a heat pump can shift a property from E to C in a single retrofit. The cost is significant, internal wall insulation for a 3-bed semi runs £4,000–£6,000, but the payback includes both lower bills and access to cheaper tariffs.

What it costs a typical 3-bed semi

Take a semi-detached house in Manchester with an EPC rating of D, using 14,000 kWh of gas and 3,500 kWh of electricity a year. Under the October price cap, that household pays roughly £1,840 a year. The cheapest available fix would cut that to £1,692, a saving of £148. But if the same home upgrades to an EPC C through cavity wall insulation (£2,500–£3,500) and loft insulation top-up (£500–£1,000), the annual consumption drops to around 11,000 kWh of gas and 2,800 kWh of electricity. That household would pay about £1,380 on the best fix, a total saving of £460 a year versus the D-rated home on the price cap.

The maths changes if you can’t or won’t upgrade. A fix still saves money today, but the gap between the fix and the cap could narrow if wholesale prices keep falling. Ofgem’s next cap announcement in February 2025 is expected to reduce the typical bill by another £50–£80, based on current futures markets. A fix taken now would lock in October’s rates for 12 months, meaning you’d miss that reduction.

The smart move for most households

For households on a standard variable tariff who can’t afford an eco-upgrade in the next six months, a 12-month fix below the cap is a sensible hedge. The worst-case scenario is you pay £50 more than you would on the variable tariff by next spring, but the best case is you save £150 and avoid another winter of price-cap uncertainty. For those who can upgrade, the priority should be EPC improvement first, then switch. A C-rated home on a fix is cheaper than a D-rated home on any tariff.

Energy Saving Trust recommends checking your current tariff end date and exit fees before switching. Most fixes have no exit penalty after 49 days, but some charge £30–£50 per fuel if you leave early. The cheapest deals today are from Outfox the Market, EDF, and Octopus Energy, all rated ‘Excellent’ on Trustpilot for customer service. Households on prepayment meters or with debt on their account should contact their current supplier first; many are required to offer a ‘debt-friendly’ fix under Ofgem rules.

Act before 1 October if you want to beat the cap rise. After that date, the new cap applies and the gap between fix and variable will narrow. The next big decision comes in February 2025, when Ofgem announces the January cap, and whether that fix you took in September still looks clever.